Course Description and Outline

CPD 112: Real Estate Consulting: Forecasting

Pre-requisite: Recommend CPD 110 & 111; statistics background would be helpful.

These four lessons build on CPD 110 and CPD 111 in developing the real estate professional's capabilities for offering high-level advisory services.  Students will explore forecasting methods for use in a real estate decision-making environment, with an emphasis on critical analysis of forecasts done by others.  The course focuses primarily on computer-based statistical forecasting tools -- use of statistical software (sold separately) is highly recommended.

Course Outline

FOREWORD: Introduction to Professional Development Courses

LESSON 1: Introduction to Statistical and Judgment Forecasting in Real Estate

• Why Do We Need Forecasting in Real Estate Decision Making?
  
• Who Needs Forecasts?
  
• How Does Forecasting "Work"?
• Forecasting Techniques
  
• Managing the Forecasting Process
  
• Summary

LESSON 2: Understanding Data Patterns and Forecasting Techniques

• Statistical Software — SPSS
  
• Lesson Plan
  
• Statistical Data Characteristics
  
• Statistical Forecasting Using Time Series Data
  
• How to forecast using averaging and patterns
  
• Summary: Forecasting Using Averaging and Patterns
  
• Appendix 1: How to Deal with Non-Constant Variance
  
• Appendix 2: Exponential Smoothing Example
  
• Appendix 3: ARIMA Example

LESSON 3: Forecasting Model Application and Results Evaluation

• Introducing Multivariate Analysis
  
• Data Analysis and Forecasting Using MRA
  
• Appendix 1: Four Important Properties of Regression Residuals
  
• Appendix 2: Cochrane-Orcutt method for Removing Autocorrelation in a Regression
  
• Appendix 3: Further Issues in Regression Analysis

LESSON 4: Demographic Forecasting and Psychographic Analysis

• Boom, Bust & Echo
  
• Why Demographics/Psychographics?
  
• Need for Demographic Analysis and Forecasts
  
• Need for Demographic and Psychographic Analysis in Real Estate
  
• Demographic Basics
  
• Demographic Forecasting Steps
  
• Creating a Simple Demographic Forecast — Model Building Example
  
• Sources of Demographic Forecasts
  
• Sources of Psychographic Data
  
• Using Demographics and Psychographics in Real Estate Forecasting
  
• Demographics in Context: Avoiding Pitfalls
  
• Market Research and Demographic/Psychographic Analysis
  
• Summary

AFTERWORD

• The Final Examination
  

---

If you have administrative questions, please email us at info@realestate.sauder.ubc.ca. If you have a comment on this page or a suggestion for additional website features, please email us at webfeedback@realestate.sauder.ubc.ca.